AXNT20 KNHC 040129
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun May 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends south-southwestward to
05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to near the coast of Brazil
at 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N
between 16W and 18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Morgan City, Louisiana to near Barra El
Mezquital in northeast Mexico. A pre-frontal trough reaches from
the mouth of the Mississippi River to near 28N92W. A trough also
extends across the central Bay of Campeche. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are active ahead of the front over the west-central
Gulf, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are active ahead of
the front over the north-central Gulf. Moderate N to NE winds and
3 to 5 ft seas follow the front. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
are noted elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas over the remainder of the
western Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf. Light smoke
from agricultural and forest fires over southern Mexico cover the
western Gulf ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Florida Big
Bend region to the central Gulf Sun, stall from north-central
Florida to the east-central Gulf Sun night and weaken into Mon. A
pre- frontal trough stretches from southwestern Louisiana to
28N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present east of
both of these features north of 22N.Otherwise, moderate to fresh
east to southeast winds are south of 26N, and gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. East winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds
north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche at
night through the period in association with a diurnal trough,
while mainly moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds and
moderate seas are expected across the Straits of Florida through
Wed. High pressure will then build southward across the Gulf early
next week leading to mostly moderate to fresh easterly winds over
most of the forecast zones early next week, except gentle to
moderate in the NE Gulf, increasing to fresh to strong over the
western Gulf by early Tue as the pressure gradient tightens.
Another weak front may reach the NW Gulf late Wed night or early
Thu. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is
creating hazy conditions in some sections of the western Gulf,
with the lowest reported visibility in the SW Gulf coast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A late morning scatterometer pass indicated strong winds southeast
of Jamaica, associated with clusters of thunderstorms. But overall
winds have been diminishing across the Caribbean, with mainly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds except for light breezes over the
southwest Caribbean. Various buoy and altimeter satellite data
show wave heights of 2 to 4 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will pulse
north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Tue night,
Wed night and Thu night. Unsettled weather is expected to
continue over most of the eastern Caribbean through the weekend
and well into next week. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to
moderate seas are expected over the basin through the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad 1013 mb low is centered near 22N50W with a trough
extending to 16N58W, which is supported by a co-located upper-
level trough. A few thunderstorms are active within 120 nm to the
northeast of the low. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass
indicated moderate to fresh winds within 300 nm to the north and
northeast of the center. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass
along with Sofar buoy data showed wave heights of 6 to 7 ft in the
area of these winds. 1027 mb high pressure centered north of the
area near 28N54W is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds
elsewhere west of 55W, except for fresh E winds off the northern
coast of Hispaniola. Wave heights are about 4 to 6 ft west of 55W. A
1022 mb high is centered near 30N30W, supporting moderate NE to E
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas east of 55W over the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the gradient between a trough that
extends from 31N55W to 25N54W and high pressure over the western
Atlantic is allowing for fresh to locally strong northeast winds
and moderate seas west of the trough to near 59W. These conditions
will gradually shift westward going into early next week as the
trough drifts westward. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may
approach then stall near the southeastern U.S. coast Sun through
Mon, and lift back north as warm front around the middle of next
week. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
the western waters through the rest of the weekend and into early
next week.

$$
Christensen